.Sergio Ermotti, ceo of UBS GroupStefan Wermuth|Bloomberg|Getty ImagesZURICH, Switzerland u00ea u00b7 UBS chief executive officer Sergio Ermotti mentioned Wednesday that market volatility can escalate in the second half of the year, but he does certainly not strongly believe the USA is actually moving into a recession.Global equities observed sharp auctions last week as financiers digested weak economic data away from the USA which increased concerns concerning an economic recession on the planet's largest economy. It likewise raised questions concerning whether the Federal Book required to be a lot less hawkish with its own financial policy position. The reserve bank maintained fees on hold in late July at a 23-year high.When inquired about the expectation for the USA economy, Ermotti claimed: "Not necessarily a recession, however most definitely a stagnation is feasible."" The macroeconomic indications are not clear sufficient to talk about economic downturns, and in fact, it's perhaps premature. What we understand is that the Fed has good enough capacity to come in and also help that, although it's visiting require time, whatever they do to become after that broadcast right into the economic situation," the CEO said to CNBC on Wednesday after the bank reported its own second-quarter results.UBS expects that the Federal Get will certainly reduce costs by at least 50 basis points this year. Right now, traders are divided in between a fifty as well as a 25 basis factor cut at the Fed's following appointment in September, according to LSEG data.Speaking to CNBC, Ermotti mentioned that our company are probably to see higher market volatility in the second half of the year, partly as a result of the USA election in November." That's one element, yet likewise, if I take a look at the total geopolitical picture, if I take a look at the macroeconomic picture, what we viewed in the final number of weeks in terms of volatility, which, in my viewpoint, is a very clear sign of the delicacy of some aspects of the body, u00e2 $ u00a6 one should count on most definitely a greater level of dryness," he said.Another uncertainty moving forward is actually financial policy and whether central banks will certainly must reduce costs more aggressively to fight a lag in the economic condition. In Switzerland, where UBS is headquartered, the central bank has actually cut fees two times this year. The European Central Bank as well as the Bank of England possess each revealed one slice up until now." Knowing the events which are theu00c2 unknowns at hand like the united state presidential vote-casting, our team came to be unconcerned along with a really low volatility, right now our team are actually moving to an even more normal regime," Bruno Verstraete, creator of Lakefield Wealth Control told CNBC Wednesday." In the situation of UBS, [even more dryness is actually] not necessarily a poor trait, since even more dryness indicates more exchanging earnings," he added.